That time of year is here again, as the 2024 MLB Draft kicked off last night, and there were some surprises and steals in the early going of the draft. In one of the strongest collegiate classes in the past few years, the first nine of 10 players were from the ranks of the NCAA. Those that went off the boards early like Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone had historic seasons to build on, while others led their teams to deep runs with eye-popping numbers and glove work.
Generally, scouts grade prospects on a 20-80 scale with 50 being average and 60 being one standard deviation away from average. Tools nearing 80 are rarely seen, and a player with all five tools average or higher is graded as a “five-tool player”. Typically, top prospect grades increase for hitting as the league averages adjust with the introduction of wooden bats and higher-quality pitching.
Pick 1, Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, Oregon State 2B
Bazzana made history in two ways as the highest-drafted Australian ever and the first second baseman to go first overall. This pick came as a shock to some, as a second baseman rarely goes so high due to size and power concerns. However, his concerns are on the other side of the diamond, which is why he is fit for second base. His hit and power tools grade at 65 and 60, or plus while his field and arm tools grade at 50, or average. That should not pose too much of a problem as he has enough arm strength to succeed for the second base position and make plays expected of him. Drafting a second baseman so high is a reach, even though Cleveland rightfully felt he was not going to be around the next time they picked. Clearly the Guardians are more than happy with what they see in Bazzana, and it is easy to see why.
Grade: B
Pick 2, Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns, Wake Forest RHP
Tennessee transfer Chase Burns is an interesting pick for second overall in the draft. He played one year at Tennessee before moving to Wake Forest, where he struggled as a starter last year before finding his gear as a long-relief man with the occasional spot start. Burns really stands out in terms of velocity: he was touching 100 coming out of high school and sits 97-99 up to 102 now, but his fastball is fairly flat with his high arm slot so hitters can read it much easier. His calling card is his slider which generated an 80-percent whiff rate over the past two years, and his changeup is solid as well. For a second overall pick, he has almost all of the stuff, but needs to hone that slider to make up for lack of life on the fastball and increase fastball command. This is a pick that could go either way, but it is hard to see a world where Burns does not have some sort of role on a major league club.
Grade: B+
Pick 3, Colorado Rockies: Charlie Condon, Georgia 3B/OF
The Colorado Rockies got a projected number-one pick at the third slot and the front office has to be happy with that choice. In a pick like Condon, the Rockies got one of the best college baseball players of the 21st century and a former walk-on. Condon broke onto the scene last year as a redshirt freshman slashing .386/.484/.800, earning SEC freshman of the year honors, but he really established himself as college baseball’s marquee talent with a 2024 campaign where he led the NCAA in average (.433), slugging percentage (1.009), OPS (1.565), homers (37), extra base hits (58) and total bases (233). His 37 home runs in just 60 games are a record for the BBCOR era of college baseball bats and is fifth all-time behind the juiced-bat era of college baseball.
His transcendent offensive talent grades as a 70 power, although some see it closer to 75 being that he can go to both foul poles. He also hits for average better than anyone in college. His fielding abilities leave some things to be desired in terms of range. his speed is slightly below average. However, his glove work is only improving as it sits at 50, while his arm is above average at 55. Many predicted him at a corner outfield or third base spot and as his range improves third base could be a good fit for him. Not only that, but the thought of Condon hitting in the mile-high Coors Field is a thought sure to scare opposing pitchers.
Grade: A
Pick 4, Oakland A’s: Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest 1B
The second Demon Deacon to go in the top five, Kurtz brings a complete hitting tool to the next level as a first baseman. His power is well-above-average and plays to all fields, something he showcased in his first two seasons, slashing 344/.498/.695 with 39 home runs. Kurtz hits both right-handed and left-handed pitching equally well which is rare to see at the college level. He covers the plate very well for a left-handed power hitter and draws walks better than anyone at the D1 level with 78. Plate discipline is plus-plus, especially at such a young stage in his career and that is promising for his offensive abilities. His defense is up to snuff at first as well, grading at 60 according to MLB.com scouts. Positionally his below-average speed matters very little as a first baseman, so that is unlikely to hurt him as he ascends the minors, and neither will average arm strength. Even more promising, Oakland developed a slew of talented first basemen from Jason Giambi and Mark McGwire to Matt Olson, putting Kurtz in good hands. An all-round offensive juggernaut with significant defensive upside is just what the A’s need in their farm system.
Grade: A+
Pick 5, Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith, Arkansas LHP
While not far from his projected slot, Smith grades as one of the most intriguing picks in the first round. Smith had an electric final season in college, going 9-2 in 84 innings with 161 strikeouts and a 2.04 ERA, bouncing back from a sophomore slump where he was still above average. His unusual three-quarters delivery comes across his body as a southpaw. It makes his 97-99 mph fastball play well above that and gives him a 65-grade on his pitch. Smith’s best pitch is a 65-grade slider pushing closer to 67.5 or 70. It clocked in 83-87 mph and Smith can also flatten it out into a cutter reaching 91 mph, giving it a new dimension. The question here is Smith’s splitter which scouts grade at 50 due to his inability to locate the pitch. When it is on, though, Smith’s fourth pitch has intriguing movement that bothers hitters. Smith’s frame is built for durability, but questions remain about his Tommy John surgery from sophomore year of high school. His ceiling is a frontline starter but his floor is much less certain which makes Smith a fun prospect for scouts. Passing on a two-way stalwart like Jac Caglianone gave many Sox analysts and fans pause, so Smith has a little extra to prove when he heads to their farm system, which he certainly can do.
Grade: B
Pick 6, Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, Florida LHP/1B
Two-way sensation Caglianone was on boards as one of the top picks coming into this year and he certainly lived up to that billing. The Jon Olerud winner hit 35 home runs while slashing .419/.544/.875 and halved his strikeouts from the previous year where he led D1 with 33 home runs. He remains a solid fielder with an above-average arm and enough speed to play first base, and he can pick balls out of the dirt better than most. Scouts seem to value his bat more than his pitching, but he has eye-popping tools other than his 70-grade power. He touches triple digits with his fastball but struggles with walks even after compacting his delivery to throw more strikes. Because of his left-handed delivery, his fastball has plenty of movement, making it a swing-and-miss pitch. His slider and cutter are average, but they remain just good enough to get hitters out and set up the fastball in two-strike situations. If he is to do both, it seems unlikely he grades as a front-line starter and a threat with the bat, so the Royals could use him out of the pen in high-leverage situations when he does not play first base. Caglianone could even occupy a fourth or fifth starter spot, where six innings of three-run ball is considered good. With all the options, the Royals can find a fit easily for the Florida prospect.
Grade: A
Pick 7, St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia SS/2B
Wetherholt earned lofty praise in his sophomore season by slashing .449/.517/.787 and winning Big XII player of the year. Scouts were rightfully excited for Wetherholt, with some calling him the “best pure bat” they had ever seen. However, injury limited him to just 164 PA in 36 games, but he still managed to slash .331/.472/.589 with eight home runs and 30 RBI. Wetherholt primarily played second base his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he projects as a shortstop at the big league level. He has the speed and range to play there, yet questions remain about his glove, as shortstop is the most important defensive position on the infield. His fielding abilities grade as average, but he can overcome that with his physical skills and a focus on the routine plays, as some believe he has the arm strength to play there. The important thing is that Wetherholt provides a huge boost with his bat in the lineup that overcomes any sort of shortcomings Wetherholt may have defensively that minor league staff can’t correct.
Grade: A-
Pick 8, Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, Tennessee 2B
This pick is a bit of a head scratcher from the Angels statistically, but watching Christian Moore play erases much of the doubt. He led the Volunteers to a College World Series title by slashing .375/.451/.759 with 32 home runs. Moore’s best strength is in his power, which is rather unusual for a second baseman to have 60-grade power. However, his long swing can pose problems as he is often caught chasing and can be slow out of the box. He does have a tendency to make pitchers work and can go both ways with his power. Another way that his grade is deceiving is that Moore is certainly a stolen base threat, yet only has a 50-grade run tool owing to his issues getting out of the box. Some scouts look to put him at center field, which makes sense as he has defensive struggles at short and fails to make some routine plays. More likely than not, though Moore grades as a second baseman in the big leagues due to his defensive liabilities. In a pinch, he can play shortstop or center field and he has a good enough bat that his play is above replacement level there. The Angels might move him around and see where he fits best as Moore does tend to defy grades with his brash style of play.
Grade: C+
Pick 9, Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS) SS
Former LSU commit Konnor Griffin is a see-it-to-believe-it type of ballplayer. He reclassed down to the 2024 draft and it is easy to see why: he is the most talented prospect to come out of high school in this year’s draft with 60-grade power, 65-grade speed, 70-grade arm, and a 50-grade hit tool. His size of 6’4” limits his ability to hit well, hence the average hit grade and the long swing. He struggles with timing, but that gets much better with practice at the next level. The thing that scouts are most excited about at the plate is his bat speed, which is second-to-none in the prep category. Coupled with his strength, Griffin is a potential 30-home-run and 30-steal candidate with his plus speed: he stole 87 bases in 88 tries this spring. His arm strength is also very high, which means that he can play anywhere in the outfield and even shortstop. Many scouts are arguing he has the potential to be a Gold-Glove-caliber defender in center-field and it is hard to argue with that. In a draft full of the most college talent ever, Griffin stands out as a can’t miss prep prospect.
Grade: A+
Pick 10, Washington Nationals: Seaver King, Wake Forest 3B/OF
The great thing about baseball is that it is a true meritocracy and if you can play, scouts will find you. Athens, GA native Seaver King starred for two years at Wingate, a D-II school in North Carolina. He is a proven wood bat hitter, winning an MVP title in the Valley League and becoming one of Cape Cod’s best hitters in the premier summer league. King puts the ball in play a lot, but he struggles with rolling over into weak contact after chasing. That can be improved upon, but his power numbers, or lack thereof, are concerning. He has great bat speed but has a flat swing that may not lead to the most home runs, with some scouts predicting 12-15 every year. However, hitting for average as an outfielder is back in vogue in the major leagues with players like Michael Harris II. He presents the most value at shortstop, but his fielding ability is just okay hands-wise. He has the speed and the range to get there, but finishing the play needs to be improved upon if he truly can become an elite defender. He could play his college position of third base, but most teams want power numbers out of their third baseman, something King struggles with. Regardless, he is a solid addition and can shore up defensive inefficiencies, turning into a classic hit-for-average and defense type of outfielder.
Grade: A-
All of these young men look to make an instant impact in the minor leagues, and it is safe to say a handful of these are going to crack the All-Star rotation in the future. It may be sooner than thought as stars like Paul Skenes and Jackson Holliday are getting rushed up through the minors to make an instant impact in the big leagues.
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